Dwindling confidence in macroeconomic growth means consumers are more price-sensitive than ever, benefiting value-oriented brands, according to Revenue Management Solutions. Overall consumer confidence in the economy has become the primary predictor of restaurant traffic, surpassing traditional indicators such as unemployment and gas prices. RMS CEO John Oakes noted that a 10% drop in consumer confidence could result in a 2% decline in consumer traffic within two months. As consumer confidence in the U.S. decreases amidst a volatile macroeconomic policy, brands are reacting.
RMS found that many macroeconomic indicators were stable in 2025, yet restaurant traffic is declining. Consumer confidence is a strong determinant of behavior, as inflation, wages, and fuel costs still play a role. In previous traffic declines, factors included rising gas prices and high unemployment. In the COVID-19 pandemic, traffic fell 15% year-over-year due to health restrictions and inflation. Although menu price inflation has decreased, consumer perception matters more. About 75% of survey respondents believe restaurant prices are currently higher. Many consumers report spending less discretionary income, signaling a shift in dining habits. Successful brands like McDonald’s and Taco Bell are leveraging this price sensitivity through value offerings.